亚游娱乐 - 论文大焖锅 | NBER Summer Institute 运河与叛匪 by Yiming Cao and Shuo Chen

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四海之内皆兄弟...


各位学术先进··|,我和波士顿大学经济系曹一鸣博士的论文《Robin Hood on the Grand Canal: Economic Shock and Rebellions in Qing China, 1650-1911》将在 NBER Summer Institute的Economics of National Security板块宣讲··|,欢迎意见··|--。以下是讲座信息:


SI 2017 Economics of National Security 

Martin S. Feldstein and Eli Berman, Organizers 

July 24, 2017 

Royal Sonesta Hotel 

University Room 

40 Edwin H. Land Blvd. 

Cambridge, MA


我的故乡哟 就在这大运河的旁边


中文摘要:本文利用1826年清朝漕运改海运的政策变化实证检验经济冲击对社会稳定的影响··|--。基于1650-1911年575个县的县级数据··|,我们发现运河的废弃显著增加了清代华东地区的冲突概率··|--。在考虑了空间相关、极端天气、地形、技术进步等一系列因素之后··|,上述结果依然稳健··|--。就其中机制来说··|,运河废弃后地方国家能力的下降并不能解释上述发现··|--。商路的废弃所导致贸易机会的丧失是其背后主要驱动因素··|--。


鲁西南、皖北及苏北地区一直以来都拥有着优良的反叛传统

反叛、合作、创新及企业家精神 傻傻的 谁也分不清


英文摘要:Social scientists have long pondered the effects of economic shock on social conflict. However, the causal evidence discovered so far is limited to a small subset of economic shocks, and the findings are still inconclusive. This paper uses the abandonment of China’s Grand Canal – perhaps the largest infrastructure project in the pre-modern world – in 1826 as a natural experiment to study the link between economic shocks and social conflicts. Using a dataset covering 575 counties from 1650 to 1911, we have found that negative economic shocks signifi- cantly generated social instability: in the period of post-abandonment, the annual frequency of rebellions was 0.0094 higher in counties bordering the canal than those that are not. The magnitude of the effect accounted for about 124% of the sample mean and was robust across various specifications. We then compare the relative explanatory power of alternative explanations, and conclude that the reform was most likely to arouse rebellions by reducing opportunity cost of the rebels, specifically through the interruption of trade in urban areas. 


工作论文请点击左下“阅读原文”··|--。




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